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MLB: Line flips a sign of MLB things to come Tuesday? 2010-08-25 According to our friends over at Sportsbook.com, three of the games on Tuesday night’s Major League Betting board have seen their lines flip today, meaning one team opened as the favorite but is now the underdog. In each case, the road club was favored but has since ceded that role to the host. Let’s take a look at those three games and their corresponding line moves to see if we can’t benefit from our fellow bettors’ wisdom. (911) ATLANTA (LOWE) at (912) COLORADO (DE LA ROSA) 8:40 PM Sportsbook opening line: Atlanta -110, Currently: Colorado -109 Colorado’s 5-4 victory in the series opener on Monday gave the Rockies their first consecutive wins since a four-game streak July 29-Aug. 1. Colorado pulled within six games of the Phillies in the wild-card race, but it wasn't the only team happy to see Philadelphia fall. The Braves (73-52) remained 2 1/2 games ahead in the NL East race thanks to the Phillies' defeat. The Rockies had scored five runs in their previous four games. Derek Lowe (11-11, 4.32 ERA) goes for the Braves. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts against the Rockies, but 1-3 in his five most recent starts, and the Braves are 2-8 in his 10 second-half starts. Lowe will be opposed by Jorge De La Rosa (4-4, 4.74), who was a hard-luck loser Thursday despite one of his best performances of the season. The left-hander held the Dodgers to two runs and five hits over seven innings, but Colorado mustered only two hits in a 2-0 defeat. Bettors may be backing the Rockies based upon the following system: StatFox Super Situation favoring COLORADO against the money line • Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games. (102-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.6%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*) (915) CINCINNATI (WOOD) at (916) SAN FRANCISCO (SANCHEZ) 10:15 PM Sportsbook opening line: Cincinnati -110, Currently: San Francisco -110 Reds rookie Travis Wood hopes to quiet San Francisco's bats and win his fifth consecutive start as Cincinnati continues its road trip on Tuesday night. However, he’ll have his hands full against a Giants lineup that scored 11 runs on 17 hits in the series opener. The Reds (72-53) remain atop the NL in batting average (.271) and runs (617), and they averaged 5.9 runs while winning eight of nine before Monday's game. The Giants (70-56), meanwhile, had totaled one run in their previous two games, but they scored five runs in the first inning of the 11-2 win. The victory opened a nine-game and pulled the Giants within one game of Philadelphia in the wild-card race. San Francisco's hitters are in for a challenge as they face Wood (4-1, 2.51 ERA) for the first time. Opponents are hitting just .176 against the left-hander, but over the last couple of seasons, San Francisco has produced well for bettors against solid pitching: • SAN FRANCISCO is 19-11 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*) Cincinnati is 14-5 on the road since the All-Star break, with slugger Joey Votto batting .406 with 16 RBIs in that stretch. That has helped the Reds take a 2 1/2-game division lead over St. Louis. Cincinnati may have to operate with a depleted lineup Tuesday against San Francisco's Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.47). Outfielder Jim Edmonds (strained oblique) and Laynce Nix (sprained ankle) both left Monday's game. A Giants win would also end the Reds' streak of six consecutive series victories on the road - and San Francisco's string of three straight series losses overall. They have fared well vs. the Reds and their divisional counterparts this season: SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*) (929) TAMPA BAY (DAVIS) at (930) LA ANGELS (SANTANA) 10:05 PM Sportsbook opening line: Tampa Bay -110, Currently: LA Angels -107 Tampa Bay has played well on the road against the Los Angeles Angels this year. The Rays, though, did not have to face Ervin Santana until now. The right-hander looks to remain perfect against the Rays in Anaheim while trying to help the Angels avoid a fourth consecutive home loss to the AL East co-leaders Tuesday night. Tampa Bay (77-48) moved into a first-place tie with New York by winning its third straight, 4-3 over Los Angeles on Monday. It was the Rays' fifth one-run game in a row. That win streak however, leads bettors into a potentially profitable fade system for Tuesday: • Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%). (41-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.1%, +23.3 units. Rating = 2*) Since losing six straight on the road to the Angels, the Rays have won three in a row in Anaheim this season. Three of the teams' four 2010 meetings have been determined by one run. Santana has posted a 1.21 ERA in winning all three of his home starts against the Rays and has been outstanding of late, posting a 2.66 ERA in winning his last three starts. He has also done very good work against the league’s best: • SANTANA is 10-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*) Making his debut against Los Angeles, Tampa Bay's Wade Davis (9-9, 4.45) will come off the disabled list for his first start since Aug. 5. Hot pitchers mean hot betting system in K.C. 2010-06-30 In yesterday’s feature baseball game, we spotted a run line system that we coined a “sure-fire” winner, and Cliff Lee and the Mariners delivered with a 7-4 win in New York. For tonight, there’s another very strong run line system AND trend that figure to impact the game between the White Sox and Royals from Kansas City. The teams’ aces will collide as Jake Peavy matches up with Zack Greinke, with the latter installed as a -115 money line favorite according to Sportsbook.com, with a run line of -1.5, +170. Chicago right-hander Jake Peavy is starting to show the stuff that earned him a Cy Young Award. So is Kansas City's Zack Greinke. Peavy will look to extend his 21-inning scoreless stretch Wednesday when the visiting White Sox try to snap Greinke's recent stretch of solid outings. The 2007 NL Cy Young winner while with San Diego, Peavy got off to a poor start in his first full season with the White Sox, going 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in 12 starts. Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA), though, thrived against NL opponents in his last three starts, winning each outing while posting a 0.78 ERA. He struck out a season high-tying nine and gave up three hits in Friday's 6-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander is now two innings of shy of matching his career-best scoreless stretch. Peavy, 4-1 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA versus the Royals, will look to win his fifth straight start against Kansas City (33-45). Greinke (3-8, 3.72) is 5-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts against Chicago. He'll make his first start versus Chicago this season after going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in five starts against them during his 2009 Cy Young season. Greinke was far from last season's form in his first 13 starts - going 1-8 with a 4.05 ERA. The right-hander, however, is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three outings, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch. The fact that both pitchers have been at their best of late leads to a highly profitable run line system from FoxSheets, backing Greinke and the Royals: Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (31-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*) The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-12 over the last 5 seasons.) The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +105 The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.8) The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 23 (54.8% of all games.) The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.5 units). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +9.6 units). Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-52, +2.2 units). If that weren’t enough, there is also a noteworthy trend to consider based upon Kansas City’s recent bullpen success. • KANSAS CITY is 10-0 against the run line (+12.3 Units) in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 4*) Visit the GAME MATCHUP page on Sportsbook.com for more key betting info on this contest. MLB Series Betting- L.A. Dodgers at San Diego 2010-05-15 The San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leader at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco this week. The Dodgers have also been playing well of late though, winners of their last four games. That backdrop makes the teams’ meeting in Los Angeles this weekend’s feature series. Let’s take a look at it. Sportsbook.com has San Diego installed as a -130 favorite to take the 3-game set. Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets. What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record. Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG. In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’” With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A. “It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.” Game 1 Edge: San Diego While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team. Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen. One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s. Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week. Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests. With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park. Game 3 Edge: San Diego This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series. Sportsbook.com series odds: Los Angeles Even, San Diego -130 StatFox Edge Pick: San Diego Slump-busters needed for Phillies and Braves 2009-09-08 An old baseball mythical term which has been around for decades finds a couple of National League teams in need of its magic. The Philadelphia Phillies were just swept at Houston and Atlanta has lost five in a row. As opposed to other teams with losing streaks at present, both these teams are changing opponents, which might be enough to end this dismal spell. However, in other instances, “slump-busters” might include changing batting order, burning bats, wearing hats differently in the dugout or a few other more crude elements that can’t be mentioned here. Can both teams get it going Tuesday on the road? Be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages to help find that answer. Philadelphia at Washington The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in a four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits. The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have a nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 on Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season. Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Sportsbook.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season. Atlanta at Houston The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to take on a hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with a .185 batting average. We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games. A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5. Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season. StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -103, Atlanta -187 San Francisco putting up Giant betting numbers at home 2009-07-07 Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers started the season by winning their first 13 home games of the season, setting a modern day record. Since then they are 15-13, still with the best overall home record, however, that could end tonight and the Dodgers have already been passed as the best bet to play in Major League Baseball by a fellow division rival. That team is San Francisco, who hosts the Marlins Tuesday. The Giants are the home dog however, and over 90% of early bettors back Florida. The Giants (45-37, +9.8 units) decided to retool what was the oldest team in the big leagues, infusing younger players with the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants front office was comfortable with their pitching staff, having Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez ready to emerge as youthful starters. They were supplemented with veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, giving San Francisco a chance to be .500 team if the offense showed any life. Though Sanchez has not worked out to this point, being replaced by 26-year old Ryan Sadowski at this moment, the Giants trail the Dodgers by seven games in the NL West, but have the second best record in the National League, thanks to pitching and home record. The Giants have the best ERA in the majors at 3.53 and are 27-13 at AT&T Park, picking up +13 units for supporters. San Francisco hurlers lead baseball in strikeouts and have learned to filter fly-balls to the enormous centerfield area that looks as big as The Bay itself. With last night’s 5-4 win over Florida (43-41, +3.1 units), manager Bruce Bochy’s club is 9-3 against the NL East and have won six of last seven games on home turf. The Giants are listed as home underdog (11-7, +5.9 units) at Sportsbook.com, thanks to pitching matchup. Barry Zito started the year fairly well, but suffered without much run support. Since then, he’s looked pretty much like the same overpaid pitcher that came across the Bay, with 4-8 record and 4.82 ERA. Zito and his teammates are +115 dogs, with total Un8. Combined, they are 4-10 in Zito’s last 14 starts as a home pooch of +110 to +150. Florida will send out their ace Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76), to slow down San Fran. Johnson has 14 quality starts in 17 tries in 2009, with sterling 1.128 WHIP and a better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Marlins are 12-2 when Johnson starts as favorite and have won last nine outings when the right-hander has been the Game 2 starter. Florida is 15-5 OVER in road games after four straight contests where they stranded seven or less runners on base. Despite 2.76 ERA against the Giants, Johnson has not defeated San Francisco in three previous attempts, while Zito is 3-0, conceding more than one run once in four starts versus the Fish. First pitch is set for 7:15 Pacific and this contest is available in local markets as well as on MLB.TV, with the Giants 15-3 OVER in home games in July games. StatFox Power Line – Florida -119 MLB: Betting Baseball Theories Changing 2009-05-06 It's not considered politically correct to admit you enjoyed Major League baseball during what has become known as the steroid era. After people lost faith in baseball because of the 1994 strike that caused the deletion of the World Series, baseball needed a change to bring people back to the park. As players started paying attention to nutrition and health supplements, the seamy side also crept in and untold numbers of players started using steroids and other performance enhancements and the ball was flying out of the ball yard as never before. Baseball assuredly heard the whispers about players "adding 20 pounds of muscle" but choose to ignore with the turnstiles twirling, as fans enjoyed all the home runs being launched across 30 ball parks. ESPN SportsCenter had a massive inventory of highlights for several shows each night and the game's popularity grew. Though many of its presumed users have not and likely will never come forward, I always had more of a problem with Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs and never before or after even reaching 25. Or Luis Gonzalez hitting 57 in 2001, with 31 homers the high water mark previously and going forward for. I'm not accusing either player of doing something they have denied doing, just trying to make sense of their accomplishments, as literally one-hit wonders. While that space of time is looked upon shamefully because a bunch of oversized non-athletic (in many cases) players were "softball bangers" with limited skills, this helped usher in a new era, taking the game back to its roots with a new modern twist that can help the sports bettor. Tampa Bay turned over its organization three years ago, finally realizing they had to have different concept to compete with Boston and the Yankees. The Rays started drafting players not only with skills, but exceptional athletes, who could run and play a different style of baseball. I've mentioned before in articles about how Peter Gammons believed in spring training of 2008, after watching Tampa Bay, he felt the Rays would be at least a .500 or better last season, since they were in his opinion the most athletic team in baseball. The Rays easily exceeded Gammon's beliefs, winning 97 games, after never winning more than 70 in any previous season. The two most obvious aspects of improvement were the young talented everyday players and starting pitchers. Scott Kazmir was already established as the best pitcher in baseball on bad team and James Shields and Matt Garza came into their own. By late August of 2008, every true baseball fan knew the names of B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena. Despite all the fanfare, one aspect was overlooked after Tampa Bay won first ever division title. The Rays actually scored EIGHT less runs in winning 97 games than they did in winning 66 contests in 2007. So what happened, the starting pitching and bullpen was dramatically improved as Tampa gave up 273 FEWER runs. One overlooked point is what a difference defense made. Where this comes into play is sites like Hardball Times, who have devised methods to rate players on defense skills, beyond errors. They have metrics like Ultimate Zone Ratings, which measure a player's ability to save or cost his team runs during the course of a season. There are so many intriguing variables to learn from, that would be two more articles, but for the sake of simple clarity, we'll stick to the basics. Tampa Bay developed a model of defensive statistics that was devised to replicate how offensive numbers worked. This led to drafting certain types of players that could reach batted balls at a higher rate then average players. The results of this new way of thinking helped produce last year's American League champions. John Dewan, who was an early Bill James follower, started Baseball Info Solutions and created +/- method of interpreting fielding. In Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview, he talked about the importance of fielding. "Last year, based on my metrics, the Phillies defense saved about 80 runs as team," Dewan stated. "The worst team, the Royals, lost about 50 runs." If you consider this the norm and think of Texas and San Diego having the widest variance in runs scored from last year with a 264 runs scored differential, this suggests defense is approximately half as important as scoring runs. If you find this argument hard to swallow, think about a few of the season results to date. Seattle is a surprise leader in the AL West, after losing 101 games last season. The Mariners added Franklin Gutierrez, who was Fielding Bible winner last season and Endy Chavez to patrol expansive Safeco Field outfield. In defensive efficiency ratings, the Mariners have jumped from 24th to eighth. If your prefer simpler stats, the top three teams in total chances are in order, Toronto, St. Louis and the Dodgers, who are a combined 54-27, +23.8 units at this time. Putouts are a related function to total chances and the four best teams at present are Toronto, Florida, Seattle and the Dodgers, all four division leaders. The L.A. Angels have been hamstrung with pitching woes, but they have not been helped by miserable defense, which has fallen from 14th to 29th this season. The game of baseball has gone back to having a lineup that has boppers and strong hitters, balanced with players who can throw around the leather. Smart baseball teams are seeing the value of fielding and smart baseball bettors are too. MLB Series Betting- Boston at Toronto 2008-08-22 The future is now for the Toronto Blue Jays, if they want to make a serious run at being the American League wild card representative. Toronto (66-61, -2 units) has won seven of nine contests and is within seven games of Boston (73-54,+6 units) for the wild card slot and starting Friday, will play the Red Sox 10 times until the end of the season, providing them ample opportunity to close the gap or be shunned like the sunlight on a gloomy Toronto day. Toronto has had smashing pitching all season, leading all of baseball in fewest runs allowed, with quality starting pitching and a deep bullpen. Hitting has been the issue all year, with chasms of games where hits and runs never materialized, especially in the clutch. If pitching can stop good hitting, the Blue Jays can close the gap and they should have confidence facing Boston. The Red Sox have lost six straight north of the border and 10 of 12 overall. Boston has failed to score more than four runs in last dozen matchups with the Blue Jays, which has Terry Francona wondering about Toronto. “The way they play against us, and that pitching, it should keep them in every game,” Francona told the Red Sox’s official Web site. “I’m hoping we’re going to find out why (they’re in fourth place in the AL East). Every time we play them, it’s not been fun.” Boston has bounced back on the road, winning nine of last 13 to raise record to 30-36 (-9.2 units). Late season acquisition Paul Byrd (7-11, 4.55, 1.301 WHIP) gets the nod in the opener. The veteran Byrd had been outstanding (4-0, 1.24 ERA over five starts) before losing initial start for Boston. Sportsbook.com has the Red Sox at -104 on the money line, with total Ov9. Byrd is 3-11 when the money line is +125 to -125 and 0-7 when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record) Toronto counters with Shaun Marcum (8-5, 3.36, 1.142) and he pitches for club that is 61-29 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5. Marcum and the Blue Jays are 8-0 UNDER at the Rogers Centre when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Game 1 Edge: Toronto Toronto’s feast or famine offense is profoundly stated with 1-12 record after batting .333 or better over a five-game span coming into the series. A big part of the problem for Toronto is the lack of power in the offense. The Blue Jays are last in the American League in home runs with 88 and only Oakland has fewer total bases. Overcoming this on nightly basis is a challenge, even if they have the same run differential as the Los Angeles Angels at +58. Jesse Litsch (8-7, 4.20, 1.294) returned from the minors with his new four-seam fastball and held Detroit to seven shutout innings with four hits allowed. While nobody in Bean Town will admit it, John Lester (12-4, 3.17, 1.277) might just be the Red Sox best pitcher or at least most clutch. The left-hander and his teammates are 6-2 after a loss this season, including winning five in a row. Lester is also 8-1 versus the AL East (Red Sox Record). Boston should be favored and they are 63-38 when in this role. Game 2 Edge: Boston The series finale sets up to be a beauty, with A.J. Burnett (16-9, 4.51, 1.395) facing Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-2, 2.77, 1.374). After a slow start, Burnett has won six in a row and Toronto is 10-2 when he starts since June 24. The Arkansas native has hit his stride and been using a devastating curveball, which has allowed him to strikeout 70 batters in last 65 innings. Matsuzaka has such electric stuff, even he can’t control it. His command is average at best, having walked four batters, nine times in 22 starts. Despite the constant trouble, teams are hitting spare .213 against him. Though he often places himself in tough spots, no batter has a hit off him in 14 tries with the bases loaded. Matsuzaka has been brilliant on the road, going 7-0 with a 2.17 ERA in 10 starts. Coming into this series, Boston was 23-15 in day games and Toronto 23-18. Game 3 Edge: Toronto Boston should have the edge in terms of pitching matchups, with a case to be made they should be favored in all three games. Because of pitching being such an important aspect of a series like this, one would believe tight games would be the norm with these AL East combatants. Instead, we find these teams seldom play close games, with only eight of the last 26 battles decided by two runs or less. This means bullpens come into play and the Blue Jays have 2.48 ERA at home and the Red Sox have 4.32 ERA in the traveling gray uniforms. This is enough to throw support to Toronto to take the series. Sportsbook.com series odds: Boston -125, Toronto -105 StatFox Edge Pick: Toronto, 2008 Record – 10-6 |